De zorgwekkende emissiegroei van China en andere landen

In 2007 haalde de CO2-uitstoot van China die van de Verenigde staten in. De Chinese energiebehoefte zal tot 2030 jaarlijks zo'n 9 procent stijgen. Doorrekenen tot 2030 levert een Chinese uitstoot op van ruim 7 keer die van 2007, gesteld dat China niet overschakelt op alternatieve energiebronnen. Hier kunnen de gezamenlijke klimaatmaatregelen van alle andere landen ter wereld met geen mogelijkheid tegenop. En dat terwijl er ook nog andere 'ontwikkelingslanden' zijn met een forse emissiegroei, van India tot Singapore. Go East, my friend.2 Tegelijkertijd dragen wijzelf met de import van goedkope consumptieartikelen uit deze landen bij aan de toegenomen emissies van die 'andere' landen: de emissies die voor de productie en het transport nodig waren, zetten we natuurlijk niet op onze eigen CO2-balans. We zullen dit sombere verhaal maar niet navertellen. Het gaat om massieve feiten waar je met een zoveelste zucht kennis van neemt. Maar ik heb enkele links verzameld.

A 'Carbonizing Dragon': Construction Drives China's Growing CO2 Emissions 5 okt 2011
Fast growing capital investments in infrastructure projects led to the expansion of the construction industry and its energy and CO2 intensive supply chain, such as steel and cement production. As a result of this transformation of China's economy, more and more CO2 was released per unit of gross domestic product.

International Trade May Offset Reported Carbon Emission Reductions 11 apr 2011
An increasing share of global emissions is from the production of internationally traded goods and services. Due to current reporting practices, this has allowed some countries to increase their carbon footprints while reporting stabilized emissions. Today, developed countries have to report their CO2 emissions, but we consume a lot of stuff that is produced in China and other developing countries.

Singapore's Climate Change Policy 2011
At no point does Singapore suggest that it will or should reduce its emissions. This is consistent with Singapore's position in international climate change negotiations as a 'Non-Annex 1' country, which puts it in the developing country category along with countries such as Indonesia, Vietnam and Kenya. At present, developing countries do not have any obligation to reduce emissions. The rosy picture of Singapore's efforts is based in large part on having achieved its carbon intensity target. This is carbon dioxide emissions per dollar of GDP, and Singapore reduced these by 25% from 1990 levels even before its target date of 2012. The problem is that, over the same period, actual emissions have nearly doubled. For 2006, three different sources - all authoritative - come up with different figures for total emissions from the burning of fossil fuels. Stubbornly presenting itself as a developing country robs Singapore of any credibility in international negotiations.

Decrease in Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions; CO2 from China, India On the Rise 2 dec 2010
Global CO2 emissions, follow the decrease in the global economy, decreased in 2009, the first decrease recorded this decade. However, in China and India the emissions increased by 9 and 6 percent.

Carbon Emissions 'Outsourced' to Developing Countries 15 mrt 2010
The study finds that, per person, about 2.5 tons of carbon dioxide are consumed in the U.S. but produced somewhere else. For Europeans, the figure can exceed four tons per person. Most of these emissions are outsourced to developing countries, especially China.

Carbon Emissions from Transport Sector in Vietnam Remain High 2010
National CO2 emissions in Vietnam have increased from 14 million tons of C in 1980 to 80 in 2005 and the transport sector’s share of those emissions has almost doubled from 14% to 25%. Road transport accounted for the bulk of C emissions with 91.95%. Economic development, population growth, and transportation energy intensity are responsible for driving up transport sector CO2 emissions in Vietnam. This is also true for Bangladesh and the Philippines. High inefficiency of fuel consumption relative to economic output in Vietnam contributes to its rapid growth in CO2 emissions from the transport sector. In contrast, only economic development and population growth are responsible in the case of China, India, Indonesia, Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Thailand.

Carbon Dioxide Emissions Booming, Shifting East, Researchers Report 29 sep 2008
Despite widespread concern about climate change, annual carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels and manufacturing cement have grown 38 percent since 1992, from 6.1 billion tons of carbon to 8.5 billion tons in 2007. The source of emissions has shifted dramatically as energy use has been growing slowly in many developed countries but more quickly in some developing countries, most notably in rapidly developing Asian countries such as China and India.

Alarming Growth In Expected Carbon Dioxide Emissions In China, Analysis Finds 11 mrt 2008
The growth in China's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is far outpacing previous estimates, making the goal of stabilizing atmospheric greenhouse gases even more difficult. Previous estimates say the region that includes China will see a 2.5 to 5 percent annual increase in CO2 emissions. The new analysis puts that annual growth rate for China to at least 11 percent.

Rising U.S. Trade May Hinder Future Global Efforts To Reduce Carbon Dioxide Emissions 15 jun 2007
Rising U.S. trade with countries like China has major consequences for the future of global climate policy. The U.S. has reduced its increasing carbon emissions by importing more carbon-intensive goods from other countries. For example, the amount of carbon dioxide missions generated from making a desktop computer in China could be up to three times higher than when the same desktop computer is made in the U.S.

Development of Asian Megacities: Environmental, Economic, Social, and Health Implications 11 jun 1998
Asian development will have profound impacts on the environment, in Asia and well beyond. Fueled by high population growth and vibrant economies, energy consumption in Asia currently represents ~20% of the world total, and it is estimated that its share will grow to 30% by 2015. During 1990-1996, total energy-related carbon emissions in East Asia grew at an average rate of 4.5% per year compared to the world average of 0.6% per year. Over the last two decades, China's SO2 (sulfur dioxide) emissions have grown by more than a factor of three, and this trend is expected to continue, with Asia-wide emissions projected to increase by another factor of two to three between now and 2020.

Jeroen Vuurboom - 9 okt 2010 (bijgewerkt 16 okt 2010)

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